# Refined copper production 2026–2031 – Summary

World refined copper production is forecast (median) at 31.81 Mt in 2031, i.e. +1.5% a year on average from 2025 (80% interval: −0.2% to +3.3%), and mine production at 25.03 Mt (+1.3% a year). Most of the bottom-up model's uncertainty is explained by refining (concentrate yield, scrap) and mines outside the register. The 2026 nowcast (Jan–Jul data) is 29,246 kt, against 28,693 kt in the ICSG forecast of 2026-10-14. Refining grows fastest in Africa (+2.9% a year); EU-27 – +1.1%, Oceania – −11.4% a year. The forecast does not constitute investment advice.

- Identifier: AIWAW-2026-R01 · version 1.3 · approved · 2026-10-20
- Base year 2025 (latest annual data) · nowcast 2026 · forecast 2027–2031
- Author: ai-waw.com · Licence: CC BY-NC 4.0
- The forecast is analytical and informational; it does not constitute investment advice or a financial recommendation. Values are uncertain as described by the intervals and in the method section.

> Related forecast: [Copper semi-finished products output in the EU 2026–2031](https://ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/eu-copper-semis-production-2026-2031) (AIWAW-2026-R02). The quantities of the two forecasts do not add up: refined copper is the feed for semis production, so adding kt Cu and kt product would count the same metal twice.

## At a glance

- World: refined copper production – compound annual growth 2025–2031: **1.5 %/yr** (p10–p90: −0.2–3.3) – fact R01-K-WORLD-REFINED-CAGR
- World: copper mine production – compound annual growth 2025–2031: **1.3 %/yr** (p10–p90: −0.4–3.0) – fact R01-K-WORLD-MINE-CAGR
- World: secondary refined copper production (from scrap) – compound annual growth 2025–2031: **2.2 %/yr** (p10–p90: −0.7–5.2) – fact R01-K-WORLD-REFINED-SECONDARY-CAGR
- China: refined copper production – compound annual growth 2025–2031: **2.6 %/yr** (p10–p90: 0.9–4.4) – fact R01-K-CN-REFINED-CAGR
- EU-27: refined copper production – compound annual growth 2025–2031: **1.1 %/yr** (p10–p90: −1.0–3.3) – fact R01-K-EU27-REFINED-CAGR
- World: refined copper production in 2026 (nowcast): **29,245.8 kt Cu** (p10–p90: 28,567.3–29,927.1) – fact R01-N-WORLD-REFINED-2026
- World: refined copper production in 2031: **31,805.6 kt Cu** (p10–p90: 28,731.7–35,324.4) – fact R01-K-WORLD-REFINED-2031
- World: copper mine production in 2026 (nowcast): **23,334 kt Cu** (p10–p90: 22,905.4–23,775.6) – fact R01-N-WORLD-MINE-2026
- World: copper mine production in 2031: **25,034.3 kt Cu** (p10–p90: 22,624.4–27,742.3) – fact R01-K-WORLD-MINE-2031

- **Base** – Median of the forecast distribution (model ensemble after the 2026 nowcast); assumptions from historical calibration. Scenarios describe alternative assumptions, not uncertainty bounds (given by the intervals).
- **Low** – Tighter supply: more disruptions, weaker project delivery and longer delays.
- **High** – Smoother supply: fewer disruptions, better project delivery, faster ramp-ups.

## Method

The forecast combines a bottom-up model – 110 mines with company guidance, 86 projects, disruptions calibrated on plan-versus-actual history, smelters and refineries, and scrap from the copper stock in use – with simple statistical models of world series. The year 2026 is set by monthly Jan–Jul data (ICSG and national agencies). Uncertainty is described by 10,000 Monte Carlo draws; interval width is calibrated on the accuracy of back-dated forecasts from 2015–2021, so it also covers errors of the model itself.

Full methodological note: https://ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/refined-copper-production-2026-2031/method
Full forecast: https://ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/refined-copper-production-2026-2031

## AI note

Claude agents (Anthropic) were used to extract figures from technical reports, company filings and official statistics (every extracted figure has a source file and page; quotes are checked automatically), to reconcile the mine and project register, to check data consistency and to draft code. All forecast numbers are computed by deterministic Python code (fixed random seeds) – the language model does not generate values. Register curation (aggregates, project–mine links, scenario assumptions) is explicit in data files and classed C. Independent reviews (data and sources, mathematics, industry, reproducibility, text – A1–A5) were carried out by separate agent instances; the result is approved in the portal panel.

## How to cite

ai-waw.com, Refined copper production 2026–2031, AIWAW-2026-R01 v1.3, 2026-10-20 – https://ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/refined-copper-production-2026-2031