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Forecasts · Copper · AIWAW-2026-R03

Copper scrap market in the European Union member states 2026–2031 – summary

Post-consumer scrap collection in the EU-27 declines slightly: 1,454.9 kt Cu in 2025 and 1,426.3 kt Cu in 2031 (80% interval: 1,319.7–1,533.6); together with new (post-industrial, traded) scrap, supply is 2,028.7 kt Cu. Net exports outside the EU fall from 98.3 kt Cu in 2025 to −52.8 kt Cu in 2031 (80% interval: −305.1 – 192.7). Of the average fall of 152.6 kt Cu, 96.5 kt is due to Art. 40 of Regulation 2024/1157 (ban on waste exports outside the OECD from 21 May 2027), 84.9 kt to higher smelter throughput from projects, while other factors act in the opposite direction (+28.8 kt); without Art. 40 net exports would be 45.1 kt Cu. The sign of the balance is uncertain – net imports in some draws follow from the balance, without a price mechanism. The forecast covers 27 member states, CN 7404 grades, smelter and processor use and nine named scenarios.

approved version 1.1 Base year 2025 (latest annual data) · nowcast 2026 · forecast 2027–2031 ai-waw.com Method

At a glance

  • EU-27 – post-consumer scrap collection in 2031 1,426.3 kt Cu p10–p90: 1,319.7–1,533.6
  • EU-27 – post-consumer scrap collection, compound annual growth 2025–2031 −0.3 %/yr p10–p90: −1.3 – 0.6
  • EU-27 – total scrap supply (post-consumer and new) in 2031 2,028.7 kt Cu p10–p90: 1,856.6–2,207.0
  • EU-27 – net scrap exports outside the EU in 2031 −52.8 kt Cu p10–p90: −305.1 – 192.7
  • EU-27 – collection rate (collection / end-of-life products, excluding the dormant stock) in 2031 65.7 % p10–p90: 60.9–70.1
  • EU-27 – share of grade 7404 00 10 in the Cu content of supply in 2031 53.9 % p10–p90: 49.2–58.8

kt = thousand tonnes; kt Cu – copper content, kt product – product mass (including alloys).

Accuracy: The structural-model backtest is conditional: stock parameters (lifetimes, sector shares, inflow scale, hibernation) are fixed at the posterior means of the main run (data to 2025), without a full refit on data before the origin – the results are no proof of an advantage over the naive forecast. The relative CRPS difference vs the naive forecast (conditional, log-mass increments) is: WEEE 0.42, W062 non-ferrous metal waste 0.28, end-of-life vehicles 0.26. For EU-27 net exports outside the EU the model CRPS is 94.7 kt Cu vs 92.6 kt Cu for the naive forecast (relative difference −0.02) – accuracy practically equal to the naive forecast. The Diebold–Mariano test has low power with 4 origins. Net-export intervals were widened by conformal calibration from 4 origins (n = 24; errors within an origin are strongly correlated): multipliers 1.37 (80%) and 1.36 (90%); coverage after calibration (leave-one-origin-out) 0.67 and 0.71 – below nominal, so net-export intervals may still be too narrow; the growth of the multiplier with the horizon and the widening of 2026 are assumptions, not backtest results. The AI model ensemble (TimesFM, Chronos-Bolt, Chronos-2) is not more accurate than the naive forecast for the EU-27 aggregate (net exports: sCRPS 1.508 vs 1.438) and there is no residual series of the physical model to learn – it affects only the 2026 nowcast from monthly data (ensemble sCRPS 0.801, TimesFM 0.719 vs 1.042 for the naive forecast). In 2027–2031 net imports occur in 35–61% of draws; this is the residual of the balance (supply minus smelter and processor demand), and the model has no price mechanism – it is not a forecast of net imports. Details →

Forecast limitations (11)
  • Process noise of collection rates and the t copula across member states are order-of-magnitude assumptions (correlations from scrap turnover), not estimates from collection residuals – national intervals may be too narrow or too wide.
  • Scrap use in 2026 is not tied to R01/R02: the high net-export nowcast lowers EU-27 use by about 59 kt Cu vs 2025, which the secondary refined copper (R01) and semis (R02) forecasts do not confirm; the nowcast has no stock component.
  • Market scope: the smelter feed index includes complex materials, blister copper and electronic scrap (CN 8549), not separated from CN 7404; the copper balance of finished goods does not enter the stock inflow (the 2022–2024 level contains it through the balances, earlier dynamics do not).
  • Trade in 2024 in Cu: R03 net exports outside the EU 122.8 kt vs 124.9 kt in the portal's EU-27 balance – the difference comes from the Cu coefficients of alloys (7404 00 91 and 99) and the least-squares balance reconciliation.
  • National collection rates 2024: the order is close to the balances (rank correlation 0.81) but not the same – above the balances CZ, FR, GR, PL, SE (Poland 0.73 vs 0.63, position 5 vs 9), below AT, BE, DE, ES, FI, IT, NL (Germany 0.64 vs 0.68, position 9 vs 5).
  • EU-27 new scrap in the model (2024: 600.0 kt Cu) lies below the EU-27 balance (847.8 kt; z = −2.8): the 12 national balances count new scrap bottom-up, the EU-27 balance top-down, with a share of about 25% of fabrication consistent with empirical estimates (Soulier et al. 2018). EU-27 scrap use in R03 is therefore lower than in the balance (2024: 1,918.9 vs 2,078 kt Cu).
  • Inflow to use of 18 member states (BE, NL, GR and 15 member states without a balance) is a proxy construction; the history of Central European member states before 1990 is uncertain.
  • Inflow scale and hibernation lower end-of-life flows similarly and are told apart only by the time pattern; the variant with a 2000–2020 inflow-scale ramp (release 1.0, also without the 2024 inflow observation) gives growing collection to 2031, the base variant does not.
  • Art. 40 of Regulation 2024/1157 is adopted law (from 21 May 2027). The assumptions are the content of the Art. 41 list – draft Ref. Ares(2026)8858290 of 18 September 2026 (copper scrap explicitly only to Serbia; China and Hong Kong not on the list; adoption by 21 November 2026) – and the volume share of end-of-waste scrap (class C, by CN code). Net exports in 2031 with a product-status share for China and Hong Kong of 50% / 80% / 95% (all codes): −69.7 / −39.3 / −24.4 kt Cu (medians).
  • Blocked exports are settled by redirection to OECD countries (with the receiving-facility audit requirement), additional EU use up to spare capacity and lower collection of low-quality fractions; the stock change is only temporary (2027–2028). Without a price mechanism the split between these channels is an assumption.
  • Prior variants with k̂ ≥ 0.7 are computed with separate, converged NUTS runs; their results are indicative.

The forecast is analytical and informational; it does not constitute investment advice or a financial recommendation. Values are uncertain as described by the intervals and in the methodological note. Terms of use →

The summary is open to text and data mining, including model training, with attribution; the full forecast data remain reserved.

Scenarios

  • Base scenario – Base scenario: trend of collection rates from data (damped), R02 semis output, D4 projects with completion probability and law adopted by 28 October 2026: (1) Regulation (EU) 2026/1738 – removal of wiring harnesses, motors and large circuit boards from vehicles from 1 September 2029 (logit shift of the Cu recovery rate from end-of-life vehicles by U(0.3; 0.8)) and controls on exports of used vehicles from 1 September 2031; (2) Regulation (EU) 2024/1157, Art. 40 – from 21 May 2027 a ban on exports of scrap as waste to non-OECD countries (the draft list Ref. Ares(2026)8858290 of 18 September 2026 allows copper scrap explicitly only to Serbia; China and Hong Kong not on the list; the list had not been adopted on the release date). Exception – end-of-waste scrap, volume share (class C assumption): China and Hong Kong (46% of Cu exports outside the EU in 2023–2025) – 7404 00 10 U(80%; 95%), 7404 00 91 U(50%; 80%), 7404 00 99 U(30%; 60%); other non-OECD countries (36%) U(5%; 25%). Blocked exports: redirection to OECD countries U(30%; 60%) (with the receiving-facility audit requirement), additional EU use U(30%; 70%) up to spare capacity of U(5%; 15%) of use, the rest – lower collection of low-quality fractions; stocks build up only temporarily (2027–2028). (2031: p50 2,028.7 kt Cu, p10–p90 1,856.6–2,207)
  • Without Regulation (EU) 2026/1738 (counterfactual) – Counterfactual: no effect of Regulation (EU) 2026/1738 on Cu recovery from vehicles (difference vs base = contribution of the regulation). (2031: p50 2,012.8 kt Cu, p10–p90 1,841.7–2,190.6)
  • CRMA – national collection programmes – CRMA (Regulation (EU) 2024/1252): national collection programmes for metal scrap, cables and Cu-bearing construction waste from mid-2028 – an instrument without binding collection targets: logit shift of the collection rates of construction and demolition waste, industrial waste and WEEE by U(0; 0.25) ramped to 2031; no demand assumption. (2031: p50 2,067.6 kt Cu, p10–p90 1,893–2,248.8)
  • Without Art. 40 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1157 (counterfactual) – Counterfactual: without the Art. 40 ban of Regulation (EU) 2024/1157 – scrap exports outside the OECD unrestricted (difference vs base = effect of Art. 40). (2031: p50 2,076.1 kt Cu, p10–p90 1,905.1–2,255.1)
  • Art. 41 list extended to Asian destinations – Art. 41 list extended to the main Asian and Middle-Eastern destinations (India, Thailand, Pakistan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, UAE, Egypt, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia) – the ban applies only to the other non-OECD countries (upside risk to exports). (2031: p50 2,057.3 kt Cu, p10–p90 1,886.5–2,234.4)
  • WEEE collection target 65% – WEEE: the collection level reaches the 65% target in 2030 (2024: mean of member states 46%); logit shift of the WEEE Cu collection rate to the level corresponding to the target, multiplied by the degree of achievement U(0.5; 1). (2031: p50 2,057.1 kt Cu, p10–p90 1,884–2,236.6)
  • Sensor-based sorting – Sensor-based sorting of shredder fractions (end-of-life vehicles, WEEE, municipal waste): installation share U(20%; 50%) in 2031 (ramp from 2026); main channel – quality: 30% of the Cu of these fractions moves to grade 7404 00 10; marginal volume – recovery of U(0%; 10%) of current losses (technology readiness for Cu – mostly laboratory and pilot scale). (2031: p50 2,031.9 kt Cu, p10–p90 1,860.1–2,210.7)
  • Digital product passport – Digital product passport (ESPR 2024/1781, battery passport 2023/1542): increase of the WEEE Cu collection rate N⁺(0.02; 0.02) truncated to [0; 0.08] by 2031 (ramp from 2028) – an assumption without quantitative evidence in the literature. (2031: p50 2,035.7 kt Cu, p10–p90 1,862.9–2,214.9)
  • Construction recession – Construction recession: construction output −8% (2027) and −10% (2028) vs base, recovery by 2031; end-of-life flows of construction and demolition waste – elasticity 0.5 to demolition activity; new scrap and processor demand according to the R02 “construction” scenario (ratio to base, persisting to 2031). The effect on end-of-life flows fades out by 2031, so in 2031 the scenario changes mainly new scrap and use. (2031: p50 1,987.4 kt Cu, p10–p90 1,820.1–2,159.5)
  • Smelter demand – projects on time – Smelter and processor demand with the D4 projects – all 4 projects completed on time, utilisation 90% (CRH Hamburg, Vöhringen, CirCular Huelva, KGHM up to 350 kt). (2031: p50 2,040 kt Cu, p10–p90 1,868.1–2,217.1)

Method

Hybrid model: Bayesian hierarchical in-use copper stock model of 27 member states (Weibull distributions, NUTS), collection rates by waste fraction, new scrap from R02 semis output, CN 7404 grades, market balance (smelter and processor use, net exports outside the EU), 2026 nowcast from monthly data and time-series foundation models, 10,000 draws with a t copula and bottom-up summation, named scenarios.

AI note

Claude agents (Anthropic) were used to retrieve and read documents (Eurostat, EUR-Lex, company reports, peer-reviewed literature; every retrieved figure has a source reference in the data files – a dataset or a file and page), to check data consistency, to write the model code and to draft the templates of the methodological note, the scenario descriptions, figure captions and facts. All forecast numbers are computed by deterministic Python code (fixed random seeds) – the language model does not enter forecast values; the note text is produced from these templates filled with numbers from the file. Assumptions are classed C and explicit in the data files. Time-series foundation models (TimesFM 2.5, Chronos-Bolt, Chronos-2; Apache-2.0 licence) run locally without fine-tuning and affect only the 2026 nowcast (net exports outside the EU); the 2027–2031 result is set by the structural model. Independent reviews (data and sources, mathematics, industry, portal and reproducibility, text – A1–A5) were carried out by separate Claude agent instances. Before publication every version is reviewed and approved in the portal's editorial panel by the publisher ai-waw.com, which holds editorial responsibility.

How to cite

ai-waw.com, Copper scrap market in the European Union member states 2026–2031, AIWAW-2026-R03 v1.1, 2026-10-28 – https://ai-waw.com/en/forecasts/eu-copper-scrap-market-2026-2031

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