Fact register · R04-N-EU27-IMPORT-2026

EU-27 – extra-EU imports in 2026, nowcast, gross mass

702.6 kt gross

EU27 · 2026 · Al aluminium

80% interval: 680.1 – 728.2 tys. t brutto (10th and 90th percentile of the forecast distribution)

Note: Median; bias correction added after seeing the results.

Primary source: EU aluminium scrap market forecast 2026–2031 – ai-waw.com model · ai-waw.com (calculations)
Source class: C
CN / PRODCOM code: 7602
Verification: model nowcast
In forecast: Aluminium scrap market in the European Union member states 2026–2031 · AIWAW-2026-R04 v1.0 · all facts of the analysis

How to cite this number

ai-waw.com, AIWAW-2026-R04 v1.0, fact R04-N-EU27-IMPORT-2026 – https://ai-waw.com/prognozy/rynek-zlomu-aluminium-ue-2026-2031

1,277.3 tys. t brutto

EU-27 – extra-EU exports of CN 7602 in 2025, gross mass · EU27 · 2025

R04-H-EU27-EXPORT-2025

652.4 tys. t brutto

EU-27 – extra-EU imports of CN 7602 in 2025, gross mass · EU27 · 2025

R04-H-EU27-IMPORT-2025

2,494.3 tys. t Al przydatnego

EU-27 – recycling within the same family in 2031, indicative measure · EU27 · 2031

R04-K-EU27-CLOSED-LOOP-2031

1,038.7 tys. t Al przydatnego

EU-27 – downcycling in 2031, indicative measure · EU27 · 2031

R04-K-EU27-DOWNCYCLING-2031

6,169.8 tys. t brutto

EU-27 – scrap supply with a buyer in 2031, gross mass · EU27 · 2031

R04-K-EU27-GROSS-SUPPLY-2031

255.6 tys. t Al

EU-27 – net extra-EU exports in 2031, assumption-dependent result, contained Al · EU27 · 2031

R04-K-EU27-NET-EXPORT-2031

5,281.1 tys. t Al

EU-27 – new scrap: gross generation in 2031 (contained Al, not gross mass) · EU27 · 2031

R04-K-EU27-NEW-GENERATED-2031

3,452 tys. t Al

EU-27 – new scrap: internal loop in 2031 · EU27 · 2031

R04-K-EU27-NEW-INTERNAL-2031