Fact register · R03-K-SCEN-ELV-COUNTERFACTUAL-SCRAP-NET-EXPORT-2031

Net scrap exports outside the EU, EU-27, 2031 – scenario: Without Regulation (EU) 2026/1738 (counterfactual)

-66.60 tys. t Cu

EU27 · 2031 · Cu copper

80% interval: -317.7 – 180.4 tys. t Cu (10th and 90th percentile of the forecast distribution)

Note: Scenario median; 80% interval (10th–90th percentile); difference of means vs base −13.1 kt.

Primary source: EU copper scrap market forecast 2026–2031 – ai-waw.com model (Bayesian stock model of 27 member states, collection rates, new scrap, CN 7404 grades, market balance; 10,000 draws; AI model ensemble for the nowcast and checks) · ai-waw.com (calculations); data: Eurostat (Comext, waste statistics), ai-waw.com copper flow balances, company reports, R01, R02
Source class: C
Checked: 2026-10-28
Verification: model forecast
In forecast: Copper scrap market in the European Union member states 2026–2031 · AIWAW-2026-R03 v1.1 · all facts of the analysis

How to cite this number

ai-waw.com, AIWAW-2026-R03 v1.1, fact R03-K-SCEN-ELV-COUNTERFACTUAL-SCRAP-NET-EXPORT-2031 – https://ai-waw.com/prognozy/rynek-zlomu-miedzi-ue-2026-2031

Other facts from this publication

65.70 %

EU-27 – collection rate (collection / end-of-life products, excluding the dormant stock) in 2031 · EU27 · 2031

R03-K-EU27-COLLECTION-RATE-2031

53.90 %

EU-27 – share of grade 7404 00 10 in the Cu content of supply in 2031 · EU27 · 2031

R03-K-EU27-GRADE-CU-SHARE-2031

-96.50 tys. t Cu

Change in net scrap exports outside the EU 2025–2031, EU-27 – effect of Art. 40 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1157 (mean of draws) · EU27 · 2025–2031

R03-K-EU27-NET-EXPORT-CHANGE-2025-2031-ART40

28.80 tys. t Cu

Change in net scrap exports outside the EU 2025–2031, EU-27 – other factors (processor demand, use level, collection, new scrap) (mean of draws) · EU27 · 2025–2031

R03-K-EU27-NET-EXPORT-CHANGE-2025-2031-OTHER

-84.90 tys. t Cu

Change in net scrap exports outside the EU 2025–2031, EU-27 – effect of smelter scrap throughput projects (D4) (mean of draws) · EU27 · 2025–2031

R03-K-EU27-NET-EXPORT-CHANGE-2025-2031-PROJECTS-D4

2,028.7 tys. t Cu

EU-27 – total scrap supply (post-consumer and new) in 2031 · EU27 · 2031

R03-K-EU27-SCRAP-2031

-52.80 tys. t Cu

EU-27 – net scrap exports outside the EU in 2031 · EU27 · 2031

R03-K-EU27-SCRAP-NET-EXPORT-2031

1,426.3 tys. t Cu

EU-27 – post-consumer scrap collection in 2031 · EU27 · 2031

R03-K-EU27-SCRAP-OLD-2031